Today, I'm honored to present my first NOVA Geoblog guest post. After listening to my talk "Rise of the Geoblogosphere" at the Geological Society of Washington in September, E-an Zen (former president of the Geological Society of America, member of the National Academy of Sciences) approached me with some concerns about the nature of blogs as a vehicle for communicating science. I encouraged him to put his thoughts together, and that I would publish the resulting manuscript here as a guest post. Collaborating with Allison "Pete" Palmer, Dr. Zen provided me yesterday with the post you find below. Enjoy reading it, and please enter your comments below. --CBWHAT IS "THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD"?DISTINGUISHING VALID SCIENCE FROM PSEUDO-SCIENCE
E-an Zen and Allison R. Palmer
October 25, 2008
Debates about the nature of science and of science education are being actively carried out in our society, apparently reflecting a real need for improved understanding of what is at stake. On one side of the conversation are those who consider that science and "scientific research" represent efforts to rationally comprehend the physical aspects of the universe; in this process of understanding, the supernatural can play no part. Many advocates of this "rational" perspective consider their efforts to transcend cultural and institutional boundaries of human institutions.
There are others in our society, however, who point out that there are different ways of "knowing", and question whether the "rational" approach is adequate as a way to comprehend the universe. Particularly active against this "rational" model are some who consider the world we live in, and the life forms it carries, as creations of a transcendental being (some people of Abrahamic faiths might identify this being as the personal God). Among these advocates are some who deny the fundamental proposition that scientific investigation must exclude the "supernatural" because the latter is beyond rational and observation-based understanding. They point out that this exclusion is based on a particular model of knowing, and they challenge its validity in a real, rather than a model, world. Some Christians who belong to this group regard the Bible as literally inerrant and in situations of conflict the Bible trumps science-based inferences; others avoid the explicit invocation of a Christian God, yet claim that the world's life forms include products of direct and specific creative intervention of a super being (see Miller, 2008 for a thorough and informative exploration of this issue).
These apparently incompatible perspectives have generated passionate public concern because the public policy derivatives of the discussion include science education in public schools. Some who accept a role for the supernatural also promote the concepts of Young Earth Creationism and of Intelligent Design. Thus we must ask: under what circumstances could these be regarded as valid alternatives to observation-based science, acceptable not only for discussion among intellectually mature citizens, but suitable for pre-college science education? The debates, unfortunately, have devolved into legal contests resulting in judicial rulings which can make it difficult to carry out rational debate of the merits of the issues. Any educational value in a classroom setting with well-informed teachers is thereby forfeited.
The advent of the blogosphere has changed the landscape of this discourse: advocates on both sides can now broadcast, with limitless distribution, their arguments in cyberspace as "information" with neither peer review nor intellectual constraint. Blogs can be accessed directly by school-age readers, and the legal barriers about what may be taught in science classrooms cannot be enforced. There is no institution for prior review or vetting of mis-information about science by school boards, teachers, or parents.
How should the community deal with this challenge? Can we establish some consensus about what should be off-limits in blogs directed to school-age students, while keeping due respect for the sanctity of diversity of views about our world and its origins? How could we ensure that the students will be able to use the blogosphere for better understanding of the "scientific method of inquiry"?
We claim that "academic freedom" is not an adequate excuse for free-wheeling teaching in a science class. In a science class, the first order of business should not be to pass down masses of data and "facts", but to tell the students what doing or thinking about science amounts to. The core of scientific inquiry is its open-ended nature: We let the evidence lead us to the appropriate inferences, rather than use science as a tool to justify a predetermined conclusion. Scientific investigation never ends, because the answer to one question invariably leads to the next, deeper question of "why", "how", "when", or "where".
Let us describe our notion of the "scientific method" of inquiry, even as we recognize that this is not the only method for asking questions about our universe. We can do no better than quote Karl Popper. In his essay "Science: conjectures and refutations" (1963, p. 47-48 in the 2002 reprinted edition), Popper made the following (excerpted) sequential points:
"(1) It is easy to obtain confirmations, or verifications, for nearly every
theory - if we look for confirmations. (2) Confirmations should count only
if they are the result of risky predictions ... (3) Every "good" scientific
theory is a prohibition: it prohibits certain things to happen ... (4) A theory
that is not refutable by any conceivable event is non-scientific.
Irrefutability is not a virtue of a theory (as people often think) but a
vice. (5) Every genuine test of a theory is an attempt to falsify it, or
to refute it. ... (6) Confirming evidence should not count except when it is the
result of a genuine [italics his] test of the theory; and this means that it can
be presented as a serious but unsuccessful attempt to falsify the theory."
Popper concluded that "One can sum up all this by saying that the criterion of the scientific status of a theory is its falsifiability*, or refutability, or testability."
* Popper used "falsify", "refute", and "test" as interchangeable synonyms. This is unfortunate because in common parlance "falsify" means to commit a fraud, to cheat, or to alter the record deliberately for nefarious purposes. The word "to falsify" should be avoided in the discussion of the scientific method (unless we want to say "to cheat"); instead, use either "refute" or "invalidate."
Popper went on to this bold, but important conclusion (2002, p. 61):
"This was a theory of trial and error - of conjectures and refutations... I
thought ... that scientific theories were not the digest of observations, but
that they were inventions - conjectures boldly put forward for trial, to be
eliminated if they clashed with observations; with observations which were
rarely accidental but as a rule undertaken with the definite intention of
testing a theory by obtaining, if possible, a decisive refutation."
It goes without saying that the initial conjecture must be triggered by some observations; It is not something pulled out of thin air.
The stories of Creation, in the version advanced by the Young Earth Creationists, or even by those who advocate Intelligent Design for the "irreducibly complex" apparatus of life organisms (see Dembski, 1999; Behe, 2008) are, by contrast, show-stoppers, because there is no way to apply to supernatural processes the method of scientific testing.
The process of invalidation, or refutation, of a scientific conjecture is a public process; it is open to everybody. The process includes peer review, formal or informal, of the reasoning as well as the conclusions. The scientific explanations, "theories" if you will, are forever on probation. There are varying degrees of certainty, but that certainty is never absolute and the most venerable hypothesis or theory may be demolished by a single "decisive refutation." The process of inquiry represented by invalidation never ends; Doing science requires a deep sense of humility and readiness to admit mistakes.
Those of us who subscribe to the Popperian method of scientific inquiry, however, could and should do a lot better when we communicate with our friends who admit a role for supernaturalism in science. We suggest that in debating this issue, we should:
- Show respect for those who disagree. Do not condescend: many of those who disagree are highly trained, very bright people. Our differences are one of philosophy, not intelligence!
- Seek to build dialogues that could enhance mutual understanding and mutual trust. That need includes a shared awareness of "trojan horses" that could sneak into a conversation. We need to be not just open, but honorable; We must understand that others may distrust us as much as we do them, often, alas, for good reasons!
- Be careful in the use of words. Words may have connotation that are objectionable to others, or that can confuse an issue through misunderstanding. We already mentioned "falsify" as an example. "Theory" is another one; Even "creation" has conflicted meanings. Each of us can think of additional examples. Let our discussions not run aground on such silly shoals!
- Emphasize that in teaching about science, the exploration of the METHOD OF SCIENCE is more important than the recitations of theories and facts. We should describe stories of both successful and failed "rational" ideas (for instance, the displacement of Newton's physics of the universe by Einstein's; Popper's essay contains a nice discussion). We should also analyse the "supernatural" perspectives to test for ways they either conform to, or fail to meet the demanding criteria of Popper. Remember that the Popper method is ideologically impartial. Philip Johnson, the intellectual guru behind Intelligent Design, used Popper's approach to challenge the logical underpinnings of Darwinian evolution (see Johnson, 1991, p. 145-148, for a lucid summary of Popper's thesis). The question is not whether Johnson is entitled to challenge Darwinian evolution as valid science. Of course he is. The issue is, was the challenge launched within the bounds of Popper's criteria for valid science, and did Johnson come up with valid refutation?
ReferencesBehe, M.J., 2008,
The edge of evolution: the search for the limits of Darwinism: New York, Free Press, 320 p.
Dembski, W.A., 1999,
Intelligent Design - the bridge between science and theology: Downers Grove, IL: InterVarsity Press, 312 p.
Johnson, P.E., 1991,
Darwin on trial: Washington, DC, Regnery Gateway, 195 p.
Miller, K.R., 2008,
Only a theory - evolution and the battle for America's soul: New York, NY: Viking, 244 p.
Popper, Karl, 1963, Science: conjectures and refutations, p. 43-86 in
Conjectures and Refutations, London, Routledge (reprinted edition of 2002), 582 p.
Labels: blogs, evolution, pseudoscience